It is going to be a BJP government, for the first time on its own in Jharkhand if the survey reports are to be believed. But in Jammu and Kashmir none of the surveyors can see a clear picture of the next assembly composition. However, their prediction is clear on the point is that the Kashmir voters are not going to see Umer Abdullah government continue.
Today’s Chanakya predicts as many as 61 seats for the BJP in the 81 member house of Jharkhand. Of course the margin of error is of 8 seats. ABP-Nelson gives 52 seats to BJP in the tribal dominated state.
Parties like JMM, Congress and JDU are reluctant to accept the predictions but the predictors see the Modi wave still intact in Jharkahand. And it is the Congress that suffers most against the Modi wave. In fact none of the parties are predicted to stand any chance before the Modi onslaught. Congress is going down to 4 seats and may reduce to even 2 as per the Chanakya forecast. The party had 21 seats in the previous house that could not settle for its full term. JMM may lose nearly 6 seats and it may be blank for the JVM. Babulal Marandi had cornered 11 seats in the last elections only to adverse any conglomeration for a stable government.
India TV –CVoter, however, don’t see an absolute clean chance for the BJP in Jharkhand. It projects 37-45 seats for party. Another surveyor Axis-APM has also made a similar prediction by giving BJP 37-43 seats.
JMM may finish at distance second. 10-16 is the maximum that it may get from the fray.
In Jammu and Kashmir the survey agencies find a close contest between PDP and BJP with the former having a little edge over the later. As per the surveys PDP is going to dominate in the Kashmir Valley region while BJP will enjoy a good harvest from Jammu.
In the 87 member Jammu and Kashmir, indiaTV-Cvoter has projected 32-38 seats for PDP mostly from Kashmir Valley bearing 46 constituencies. In spite of an all out effort by the BJP the saffron party doesn’t seem to have established confidence for itself among the voters in the valley. The party may finish there with just a single where as Mufti Mohammed Sayeed’s PDP is projected to garner upto 35 seats from there. But in Jammu region BJP may do a near clean sweep. With a major share of between 25-31from BJP is likely to finish between 27 and 31 in the entire state.
Umer Abdullah’s National Conference may come across the worst ever result of it. C-voter has projected 8-14 seats for NC. Congress’ bad fortune will continue in Jammu and Kashmir too.
The two states are awaiting the result on 23 after the voting completed in 5 rounds on Dec 20.